In February, 2020, Australia closed its borders to travelers from mainland China. The action followed the spread of the Corona virus in Wuhan, and the policy was no different from the bans introduced in North America and Europe at the time. Except for one thing: Thousands of Chinese students were excluded from participating in the Higher Education programmes they had bought as a service from Australian universities.

THE AUSTRALIAN-CHINESE CRISIS
The Australian case is the most dramatic example of how higher education is challenged by COVID-19. Since the 1990s, Australian universities have made up for lost public funding by recruiting international students. This effort has been so successful that by 2020 international education services have become the fourth largest export. The revenue generated through fee-paying international students is huge, and a substantial part comes from the more than 260.000 Chinese studying in Australia (Statista 2020). Most have paid high fees for their access to Australian education and expect a service to be delivered in return for their investment.

When Australia closed its border in February, fee-paying Chinese students were unable to journey to their host universities. Their only option was to travel via third countries such as Thailand or Malaysia, which added an extra cost, while causing students to arrive late in Australia. Study International reports how some reacted by cancelling their studies, opting for alternative destinations in North America or Europe (SI News 2020). This has led to speculations that Australian Higher Education will see its share of the student market decrease, causing a loss of up to 19 billion Australian dollars, or the equivalent of 87,5 billion Danish kroner, over the next three years (Hurley 2020).

Recently, the Australian-Chinese crisis has escalated further, with accusations of racism against Chinese students in Australia. Although these claims have been dismissed by the Australian government, stories have spread of Chinese who have been victims of hate crimes, causing Beijing to advice its citizens against travels to Australia. The Chinese government undoubtedly reacts as part of an escalating diplomatic crisis and any accusation should be treated with caution. Yet such stories will influence the choices made by young Chinese, causing some to de-select Australia as their destination country.

VALUE FOR MONEY?
Australian vice-chancellors are not the only university managers to worry about the financial consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. Also the UK and the US are likely to see the pandemic affect their institutions of Higher Education negatively. The first concern is money. Both British and American universities charge high fees for the services delivered, which means that there is a consumer culture where students will ask if their courses offer ‘value for money’.

In Britain, prestigious universities such as Cambridge have already announced that education is online in the autumn. Cambridge charges 9,250 British pounds for an undergraduate home student, which is equivalent to 76,500 DKR. To this should be added college charges and other living costs. Students willingly pay this because of the institution’s reputation as well as the tutorial system, where teaching happens in small groups. But will students accept paying the same price for an online course?

The ‘value for money’ concern also challenges American universities, which charge high fees from students in return for campus accommodation, meals, social activities etc. Campus halls are considered risky in terms of COVID-19, which in spring caused universities to send students home and digitalise all courses.  COVID-19 remains a health concern in the autumn and particularly to students living on campus. Yet American colleges may need to reopen their halls of residence to avoid complaints from parents who believe they have paid for this service.

 

Risky travel?

In terms of the attractive international student market, COVID-19 is expected to cause major changes. Mobile students are consumers who count the costs of an education against the potential risk associated with particular destination countries. This hits hard when countries gain a reputation for discrimination, hate crimes or the treatment of non-natives as ‘cash cows’ admitted to fill the vice-chancellor’s empty coffer. We saw this in the Australian example, but also Britain and the US are expected to see their numbers of international recruits drop.

 

Students seeking to study abroad have watched how governments around the world handled COVID-19. The British and American governments are generally believed to have mismanaged the crisis, which, educational scholar Simon Marginson predicts, will influence these countries’ reputation as destination countries for mobile students (Baker/Lau 2020). Marginson anticipates a shift in student traffic towards Asian countries such as China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan. But also European destinations such as Germany, Denmark and Norway now have a window of opportunity, due to their governments’ ability to contain the COVID-19 virus.

A GAME-CHANGER?
COVID-19 is expected to become a major game-changer in Higher Education. A decline in the demand from fee-paying international students will cause major economic damage to institutions in countries such as Australia, US and UK, who may lose their current market advantage. Alternative education hubs in Asia and South Africa will be strengthened in response to some students’ wish to study closer to home, which could spark a new wave of offshore activities for institutions in Western Europe, North American and Asia-Pacific. Online education will spread as an alternative for students who seek an international profile, but fear the risks associated with travelling to a different part of the world. This may give rise to more virtual collaboration – with partnerships, multicultural teamwork and indeed ‘study abroad’ realised through digital media. These are interesting times in higher education – a lot of changes coming up!

Hanne Tange, July 2020
tange@hum.aau.dk

References:

• Baker, S. and Lau. J. 2020. Poor handling of pandemic ‘could damage student recruitment’. Times Higher Education April 30.
  Hurley, P. 2020. Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next three years. The Conversation. 
• SI News 2020. What is the future of Chinese students in Australia? SI News: Independent News for International Students May 22.